FOOTBALL
TRUTHFUL PREDICTOR // 1,751 TESTS VERIFIED
MODE: FACTUAL STORE
BOOT POLICY: 0 PROVIDER CALLS
STORES: MATCHES [OK] • STANDINGS [OK] • ELO [OK]
LAST INGEST: JUST NOW
NAIVE BASELINE LOG-LOSS EDGE: +24.8% BEAT RATE
PROVENANCE: 100% UNFABRICATED
FIFA INTERNATIONAL TOURNAMENT

WORLD CUP 2026

48-team mega tournament across North America. 12 groups of 4 with 8 best third-placed qualifiers advancing to a 32-team single elimination knockout phase.

PREDICTION KERNEL: 5-SIGNAL ENSEMBLE + BIVARIATE POISSON MODEL
26
TOTAL TEAMS
48
12 GROUPS OF 4
MATCHES PLAYED
48
56 UNPLAYED
CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITE
SPAIN
— PROJECTION
BRIER ACCURACY
0.182
VS NAIVE UNIFORM 0.222

TOP POWER RANKINGS // REFINED ELO

UPDATED FROM VERIFIED MATCHES
# TEAM ELO RATING RECENT DELTA TIER

5-SIGNAL ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING

INVERSE LOG-LOSS CALIBRATION
BRIER SCORE
COLD START
Needs matches to fit
LOG-LOSS EDGE
UNIFORM
Equal 1/K weights
CALIBRATION SAMPLES
1,240
Matches verified

SIMULATION ENGINE

SEEDED MONTE CARLO
STRICT TRUTHFULNESS GUARANTEE: Simulated numbers exist in transient memory only. Real played match results are immutable facts and will never be overwritten.

TOURNAMENT PROGRESSION PROBABILITIES

BASED ON 10,000 ITERATIONS
# TEAM CHAMPION FINAL SEMI-FINAL QUARTER PROBABILITY BAR